Estimating Credit Card Approval Likelihood

Determining approval chances can be tricky, but a rough estimate can go a long way to narrowing your choices.

Estimating Credit Card Approval Likelihood
3 min read
Apr 12, 2024

Knowing whether you're likely to be approved for a credit card before you apply can save you time, hassle, and potential damage to your credit score. Crunchly provides a preliminary estimate of if your credit score is in the recommended credit score range for each card, but it's important to remember that final approval decisions are made by issuers on a case-by-case basis and consider various factors beyond just your credit score.

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Crunchly gives preliminary guidance on which cards could vs could not be a potential match for you. We acknowledge that this estimate does not consider all the factors that card issuers typical use to determine application acceptance. Our estimates here are just that - estimates - and should be treated as such. Please review card-specific eligibility details with the card issuer directly before applying for a given card.

Why is Knowing Your Credit Card Approval Likelihood Important?

Firstly, applying for credit cards typically involves a hard inquiry on your credit report, which can temporarily lower your credit score. By knowing your approval odds in advance, you can avoid unnecessary inquiries and potential dips in your score.

Additionally, if you're unlikely to be approved for a particular card, you can focus your efforts on options that better match your credit profile, increasing your chances of success.

How is Credit Card Approval Determined?

Credit card approval is determined by a combination of factors, with your credit score being one of the most significant. Other factors may include your income, existing debts, employment status, and payment history. Issuers use this information to assess your creditworthiness and determine the level of risk associated with extending credit to you. Generally, higher credit scores indicate lower risk to lenders and increase your chances of approval, while lower scores may result in either higher interest rates or outright denial.

How Does Crunchly Consider Credit Card Approval Likelihood?

Crunchly utilizes a simple and straightforward model to estimate if you a are a good fit (or not) for each card based on your credit score and the recommended credit score range for the given card. Here's how it works:

Target Score Determination: Crunchly gathers target scores for each credit card, using issuer guidelines, data from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, or other reputable sources like NerdWallet.

Comparison: Your actual credit score is compared to the target score range for the card in question.

Likelihood Assignment: Based on this comparison, Crunchly assigns likelihood categories as follows:

  1. Great (Above Range): Your credit score exceeds the top end of the target range.
  2. Good (In Range): Your credit score is within the recommended target range.
  3. Slightly Below Range: Your credit score is 20 points or less below the bottom end of the recommended range. This means it likely will be difficult for you to get accepted for the card, but other factors like strong income could make your ultimately eligible despite your credit score.
  4. Below Range: Your credit score is firmly below the bottom end of the target range.

Note: We acknowledge that this estimate does not consider all the factors that card issuers typical use to determine application acceptance. Our estimates here are just that - estimates - and should be treated as such. Please review card-specific eligibility details with the card issuer directly before applying for a given card.

Incorporating Approval Likelihood Into Card Recommendations

When recommending credit cards, Crunchly factors in approval likelihood alongside other important considerations such as total value, rewards programs, etc. The weighting assigned to each of these factors, including approval likelihood, depends on what importance you assign to it.

See our writeup on the Personalized Score for full details on importance levels, but to summarize: